donderdag, juli 1 2010

WP1 report on the Analysis of climate change, high-flows and low-flows scenarios on the Meuse basin

Maïté FOURNIER (EPAMA) | Onderzoek doen en overeenkomen van hydrologische scenario's

The present report details methods and results from Actions 1 and 3 which have been carried-out in 2009 and supervised by the University of Metz.

The objective of Action 1 was to share our knowledge on the present and future characteristics and hydrological behaviour of the Meuse river basin. Knowledge on this topic is still scattered and hardly available within the 3 official languages spoken on the Meuse basin. Information has been gathered by the Partners and organized by topics into an online database.

Action 3 was dedicated to the study of downscaled climate simulations for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 and their consequences in terms of floods and low-flows on the Meuse river basin:
- which discharges can be expected on the river Meuse and main tributaries?
- how the return period, duration, extent of floods and low-flows will change from now to 2021-2050 and 2071-2100?

Partners have analyzed climate simulations from meteorological institutes (IPSL, Cerfacs, KMI, KNMI, ...), national and EU research programs (Prudence, Ensembles, ADAPT, etc). They have checked if they can be applied to the Meuse basin, assess their uncertainty and the required corrections.

The Partners involved achieved the basis research that will be used throughout the AMICE project. The climate and hydrological scenarios will not only be used for WP1 but also for some investments in WP2 and WP3, as well as for the definition of the transnational exercise in WP4.

It is to be emphasized that the AMICE adaptation strategy will respond to two climate scenarios (a wet and a dry ones) – the most reliable we could find but not the only possible ones – with their assumptions and uncertainties. These climate scenarios represent what could, most likely, happen on the Meuse basin.