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Journal Article: BibTeX citation key:  Gouweleeuw2005
Gouweleeuw, B. T., Thielen, J., Franchello, G., De Roo, A. P. J., & Buizza, R. (2005). Flood forecasting using medium-range probabilistic weather prediction. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9, 365–380.
Added by: S├ębastien LEBAUT 2009-06-06 18:08:00
Categories: 1.1 English , 2.1 Meuse river , 4. Climatology , 5. Hydrology , 5.1 Floods , 9.1 Flood forecasting , 9.5 Models inventory
Keywords: 1995 , ensemble based stream flow forecasting, flood forecasting, probabilistic weather prediction
Creators: Buizza, Franchello, Gouweleeuw, De Roo , Thielen
Collection: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Number of views:  396
Popularity index:  67.01%

Following the developments in short- and medium-range weather forecasting over the last decade, operational flood forecasting also appears to show a shift from a so-called single solution or 'best guess' deterministic approach towards a probabilistic approach based on ensemble techniques. While this probabilistic approach is now more or less common practice and well established in the meteorological community, operational flood forecasters have only started to look for ways to interpret and mitigate for end-users the prediction products obtained by combining so-called Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models with rainfall-runoff models. This paper presents initial results obtained by combining deterministic and EPS hindcasts of the global NWP model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with the large-scale hydrological model LISFLOOD for two historic flood events: the river Meuse flood in January 1995 and the river Odra flood in July 1997. In addition, a possible way to interpret the obtained ensemble based stream flow prediction is proposed.
Added by: S├ębastien LEBAUT

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